Strategic Outlook 2017
The Risk Advisory Group is pleased to present our Strategic Outlook 2017. This is our third global forecast for corporate security leaders. It represents the joint assessments of our Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) analysts across all regional desks.
The Strategic Outlook is primarily for those tasked with managing risks in international businesses and organisations. It attempts to interpret and foresee how wider political, economic and social trajectories may influence security and crises.
We highlight the dynamics and trends shaping events. We also share some of our assessments of the intentions and strategies of relevant actors, forecasting potentially threatening scenarios.
The world in 2017 looks set to be even more uncertain and volatile than 2016. An unstable multipolar global order has been emerging in recent years. This trend will probably accelerate in 2017. Such change carries with it a growing potential for conflict and crisis.
It now seems that authoritarian populism and nationalism will be important political forces in 2017, particularly in the West. Brexit and the election of Donald Trump were two major surprises in 2016. Both showed that liberalism and its institutions are losing political currency in Western societies, evidently more so than most - including us - foresaw.