Venezuela’s political crisis appears to be entering a new phase. With unrest continuing to escalate towards a more generalised breakdown of law and order, we believe that the chances of the military withdrawing support for President Maduro and pushing for his replacement are increasing.
Violent protests, bouts of rioting and looting, attacks of public and private property, and localised breakdowns in law and order have become more frequent over the past couple of weeks.
There are signs that the police and national guard in some areas of the country are no longer able to cope with sustained violent protests. If protests continue to become larger, more frequent and more violent, we assess that a more generalised mutiny among these security forces is a credible scenario in the coming months.
In such a scenario, we believe that the armed forces would reassess its support for the president. However, we think that they would be more likely to force President Maduro to resign than to establish a military government.