Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map 2019
This is the twelfth year Risk Advisory has partnered with Aon to produce the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map by providing source data and expert analysis.
The country risk ratings draw heavily on proprietary data and represent the joint assessments of Risk Advisory and Aon. The map and its supporting analysis aims to provide a global overview of exposure to insurable political violence risks for businesses and their supply chains in 2019.
The findings of the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map 2019, points to continued instability in nearly every region. The resurgence of authoritarianism and nationalism has widened fault lines between allies, and fuelled geopolitical competition. It has also increased regime instability risks across much of the world as more governments adopt less inclusive policies and systems of governance. And it is undermining international multilateral institutions. All of this contributes to changes in the global order and state behaviour, and makes interstate conflict a more prevalent risk.
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- In North America and Europe, there has been a reduction in terrorist attacks motivated by Islamist extremism, and an increase in attacks motivated by extreme right-wing beliefs.
- After IS lost territory in Iraq and Syria in 2017, it shifted focus to other countries with fragile security environments, particularly Afghanistan, Nigeria and the Philippines. The group and its supporters mounted at least twice as many attacks in these three countries in 2018 compared with the year before.
- Islamic State has become less able to mount and inspire attacks in the West. There were more than twice as many IS-linked attacks in North America, Europe and Australia in 2017 (26) than in 2018 (11).
- Spain is among the countries and territories with a risk level decrease. Its exposure to civil commotion risk has declined in the last year as large and disruptive demonstrations in favour of Catalan independence have subsided.