Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map 2018
This is the eleventh year Risk Advisory has partnered with Aon to produce the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map - providing source data and expert analysis.
The country risk ratings represent the joint assessments of Risk Advisory and Aon, and aim to provide a global overview of the level of probable exposures that businesses and their supply chains have to political violence risks in 2018.
The findings of the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map 2018, point to a more unstable and dangerous world, where business-threatening geopolitical risks are becoming a much greater concern. For the third year running, we have increased the risk levels for more countries than we have reduced.
The ratings capture persisting and diversifying terrorist threats, but significantly this year, they also capture the impact of resurgent nationalism and authoritarianism.
While civil unrest and terrorism dominate the ratings for most countries, the likelihood of interstate conflict involving major powers has reached the highest point since the end of the Cold War. Growing geopolitical competition, what the US administration has termed Russian and Chinese ‘revisionism’, and a leadership deficit in international diplomacy all contribute to sustained or increased risks of armed conflict. They also mean that more vulnerable countries are at greater risk of political violence from within, and are more exposed to instability spreading from external conflicts.
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Key Findings
- For the third successive year, more country risk ratings have increased than decreased.
- Political Violence: The likelihood of interstate conflict, even involving major powers, is at the highest point since the end of the Cold War.
- Terrorism: The number of terrorist attacks in Western countries in 2017 was roughly double that of 2016.
- The threat posed by Islamic State has stopped spreading – but has not yet receded.
- The tourism sector, in particular, is having to manage the risks posed by terrorism, with the sector a highly attractive target for some terrorist groups.
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