For investors, the opportunity needs to be considered alongside a changing political and regulatory landscape. Understanding the priorities of the new administration, the state’s willingness to intervene in transactions and how established political and commercial networks are evolving will be important when assessing opportunities in the sector.

Presidential power & transition: what are the priorities of the new ruling elite?

Despite the relatively peaceful transition from Bongo family rule, Gabon is still considered structurally fragile. The 2024 constitution abolished the post of Prime Minister and concentrated executive authority in the Presidency, giving President Brice Oligui Nguema significant influence over strategic-sector policy and major commercial decisions.

For oil and gas investors, understanding the priorities of the presidency, senior transition-era officials, and the political networks forming around the new administration is important. Formal regulation will only provide part of the picture: understanding where influence sits and how decisions are likely to be made will also matter for companies considering investment.

Resource nationalism & regulatory change: how might the rules of the industry shift?

Investors would need to be resilient and should be prepared for potential changes in local participation requirements, approval processes, and state expectations around strategic assets.The government has also demonstrated that its strategic interest in the sector can extend directly into transactions.

The Nguema administration has framed the oil sector as a strategic national asset. As Gabon prepares to replace the 2019 Hydrocarbons Code with a dual legal framework, local-content obligations may become more prominent.

The timing and content of these reforms remain uncertain. Since taking office in January 2026, Minister of Petroleum and Gas Clotaire Kondja has promoted new upstream investment while advancing the government’s plans to revise the legal framework. Investors will need to watch how the proposed oil and gas regimes translate into rules on fiscal terms, local participation and state involvement. 

Could the state intervene in future transactions?

The Gabonese government has already shown that it is willing to use pre-emption rights to intervene in upstream asset transfers. In 2024, Gabon Oil Company (GOC) acquired Assala Energy from Carlyle after the state exercised its pre-emption right, displacing an earlier sale process involving Maurel & Prom.

For investors, this creates a specific risk around farm-outs, asset sales and changes of control. Even where a transaction is commercially agreed and legally structured, the state may seek to review, delay, or potentially pre-empt the transfer. Understanding how the government views the strategic importance of an asset should therefore form part of transaction planning, rather than being considered only once an agreement has been reached.

Could economic pressure change the investment environment?

Gabon remains an established oil producer, but production has declined significantly from historical peaks because many onshore assets are mature and infrastructure is ageing. At the same time, public debt is elevated, increasing the government’s need for revenue and potentially sharpening expectations around taxes, local benefits and state participation.

Foreign companies should assess whether they could become vulnerable to renegotiation around fiscal terms, delays, or political scrutiny. The combination of mature assets and fiscal pressure makes understanding the government’s commercial priorities particularly important when assessing the durability of an investment.

Where does influence now sit?

Gabon’s oil and gas sector was associated with patronage and corruption allegations during the Bongo era. It is not yet clear whether the underlying networks that shaped licensing, approvals and government access have been dismantled or simply reconfigured. The consolidation of power around President Nguema and the growing role of the GOC could create new exposure points, particularly around politically connected local partners, service providers and intermediaries.

For investors, this makes understanding the people and relationships surrounding an opportunity particularly important. Political and integrity due diligence can help establish whether prospective partners have relevant influence, where that influence comes from and whether those relationships could create longer-term regulatory or reputational exposure.

What should investors be watching?

As international operators continue to seek growth opportunities across Aftica’s established producing basins, Gabon is increasingly attracting attention. But investment decisions will depend on more than the quality of the resource. The political and commercial environment surrounding those opportunities is changing just as quickly as the opportunities themselves. 

The key questions extend beyond the commercial terms of an investment. Who now influences strategic-sector decisions? How might local participation requirements evolve? Where is the state most likely to intervene? And have the political networks surrounding the sector disappeared, or simply changed? Understanding these dynamics before committing capital can help investors distinguish attractive opportunities from those carrying less visible political, regulatory or integrity risks.

As the questions facing investors become increasingly political, commercial and strategic, so too must the intelligence that informs them. At Risk Advisory, we provide intelligence for decisions where due diligence isn’t enough, helping clients understand the political, regulatory and stakeholder dynamics that shape investment outcomes in complex markets.