At a crossroads: Could electoral uncertainty undermine Angola’s energy sector momentum?

Angola and its energy landscape presents a study in contrasts. While the country under President João Lourenço has successfully repositioned itself as a capable, pragmatic, market-oriented partner, its political future remains uncertain. 

Structural reform and renewed investor confidence

Lourenço has implemented several major energy sector reforms since he came to power in 2017. Arguably the most important was the creation of the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG) as the national concessionaire and sector regulator. By stripping Sonangol of its regulatory powers and handing these to the ANPG, the government ended the "player and referee" conflict of interest that had long stifled transparency and development at the national oil company and the sector more broadly. ANPG’s management, led by Paulino Jerónimo, has been praised by many across the energy space, especially for its technical proficiency and openness to engaging with investors.   

This has been accompanied by a handful of other reforms. These include the introduction of the Oil and Gas Incremental Production Decree, enacted in 2024 to promote investments in both offshore mature oil blocks and undeveloped offshore areas through tax incentives, as well as improved licensing strategies. Between 2019 and 2025, Angola auctioned approximately 50 onshore and offshore licenses, fostering much-needed predictability for capital allocation in the sector. The New Gas Consortium (NGC), operated by Azule Energy in partnership with the likes of TotalEnergies and Sonangol, has also bolstered Angola’s non-associated gas capacity, with production on the Quiluma field commencing this month.

These reforms have been met with positivity and a palpable sense of momentum. One international oil and gas executive we spoke to commented on the ease of engaging with the ANPG when dealing with licensing processes. Several majors, including TotalEnergies, Equinor, and ExxonMobil have extended licenses, some beyond 2040, with further licensing rounds expected to take place throughout 2026.

Political transition risk ahead of the 2027 elections

As the August 2027 general elections approach, there is significant uncertainty on the horizon. Key observers agree that it is too early to predict Angola’s next leader, though the names of several potential successors have been circulating: General Fernando Garcia Miala, the head of the state intelligence service and MPLA veteran; Adão de Almeida, who recently assumed the role of president of the National Assembly; Esperança da Costa, the current vice president and Lourenço loyalist. The possibility of a new UNITA-led government cannot be ruled out, particularly given the opposition party secured 43.95 percent of the vote in 2022. That said, the ruling MPLA will not give up its 50-year grip on power easily, and some commentators suggest it may seek to exploit complex legislative loopholes to ensure victory.    

While the technical risks of Angolan basins are well-understood, the political and regulatory risk is evolving. For those operating in the upstream sector, the primary concern is not just who wins the election, but what this will mean for the sector, and in particular for key reforms that have stalled under Lourenço. Key questions will arise in relation to the future of ANPG and Sonangol, the tightening of local content requirements under the Angolanização mandate, and the awarding or extension of licences. 

Strategic uncertainty for upstream stakeholders

Industry insiders have highlighted several key areas of uncertainty that should not be overlooked. Sonangol has had its wings clipped by numerous reforms, including major divestments of non-core assets, but remains a vital player in the upstream sector. Its touted privatisation and possible listing has been delayed several times, and now seems unlikely during Lourenço’s second term. One executive at an oil and gas service provider expressed concerns over the uncertainty surrounding how Sonangol will be handled by the next administration, and what this could mean for its existing joint venture partnerships.  

Beyond the regulatory environment, questions have also been raised about the immediate outcome of the election. Most notably, one Angolan oil and gas industry insider expressed concerns around the potential for a prolonged period of post-election instability and uncertainty. The possibility of social pressure and unrest should not be underplayed, with the aftermath of Mozambique’s 2024 general elections serving as a warning. Protests and deaths in Luanda and across the country in July 2025 show that Angola is not immune to cohesive frustration.

Angola’s future is ultimately approaching a political crossroads characterised by uncertainty. The likelihood of new leadership raises several questions for those operating in the energy space: Will Jerónimo remain at the helm of the ANPG? Will the regulator continue to be a bastion of technical expertise? Will Sonangol, which still lags behind ANPG, continue to undergo professionalisation, or could these gains be reversed? Is there a risk of a pivot away from privatisation or openness to foreign investment? Will compliance risks heighten with the emergence of a new group of politically connected companies under Lourenço’s successor? As uncertainty looms on the horizon for Angola, it is more important than ever that decision makers are guided by actionable insight and intelligence. 

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