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Venezuela, criminal cartels and the move against Maduro
The dramatic events in Venezuela over the last few days have been nothing short of astonishing. While not a surprise, given the build-up of US pressure and military forces off the coast of the country over previous weeks, the sheer velocity and clinical nature of the operation were remarkable. Within 72 hours, US forces had captured sitting president Nicolás Maduro and his wife and removed them to New York, where federal prosecutors promptly filed four criminal charges against them and others, including narco-terrorism, drug-trafficking and weapons charges.
This extraordinary foreign policy adventure has prompted theories as to Trump’s true motivation for this assault, which broadly fall into three buckets: 1) a desire to exploit the region’s hydrocarbons for the US; 2) an intention to be the hegemonic power in the western hemisphere, which was resisted by the Chavistas’ continuing attachment to China, Russia and Iran; and 3) a significant escalation in efforts to reduce the flow of narcotics and other criminal activity through Venezuela.
All three are plausible and may be true at the same time, although we should be wary of imposing our own logic on a president who is no stranger to taking risks and acting on a whim.
At the very least, the most consistent policy thread we can follow is the third motive, namely a stated desire by the US administration to address the issue of criminal cartels in Latin America. Since February 2025, the US Department of State and Department of Justice have been designating these transnational groups as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) on the basis that they wage a campaign of violence and terror against US interests and the region as a whole.
As details of the federal charges against Maduro emerge, his alleged role in aiding and even directing this cartel activity – he has been described by the Trump administration as the leader of the ‘Cartel de los Soles’ – is clearly the basis of US prosecutors’ strategy.
Opportunities for investors
As we look at what opportunities and challenges may lie ahead for investors as they weigh a (re-)entry into Venezuela, this widespread criminalization of the state and its assets may be the single biggest challenge. When it comes to oil, even leaving aside the quality of the heavy and high-sulphur crude, Venezuela's current production (921,000 barrels/day) is a fraction of its potential due to obsolete, looted or poorly maintained infrastructure. It may take years, if not decades, to significantly increase production.
Venezuela’s gold reserves – up to 8,000 tonnes by some claims – may also be attractive. But the sector is dominated by illicit activity, with the majority of its mined gold reportedly smuggled out of country, benefiting criminal networks such as Tren de Aragua, which the US State Dept. designated as an FTO in February 2025. These are challenges that are not going to disappear quickly, regardless of who ends up running the country.
Regional implications
Finally, Maduro’s removal and the resulting political uncertainty also has important implications for Venezuela’s neighbors, particularly Guyana. Venezuela claims about two thirds of Guyana’s land and a significant share of its offshore waters, including the Stabroek Block, where ExxonMobil currently produces over 600,000 barrels of light sweet crude a day, which may soon overtake Venezuela’s own petroleum output. While Guyana will be leery of Venezuela’s instability spilling over, Maduro’s removal comes at an opportune time. Guyana will hope to remove the threat of Venezuelan intercession in its offshore waters, as occurred in 2013 in the western Roraima block, as it negotiates new or updated Production Sharing Agreements across a swathe of offshore blocks this year. More importantly, the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute is set to proceed at the International Court of Justice in 2026. Without Maduro, and in an environment in which the US seeks to closely influence Venezuelan policy, Guyana may suddenly have a much less expansionist opponent in its long-running border dispute.
The activities and risks associated with FTOs operating in Venezuela and across the region can be tracked using Risk Advisory Group’s FTO-Cartel Risk Tracker.