Strategic assessment | Venezuela | Anticipating a military rupture with Maduro

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<strong>Strategic assessment | Venezuela | Anticipating a military rupture with Maduro</strong>


Key findings:

  • On current indications, a collapse of the chavista regime does not seem imminent
     
  • Without an immediate threat of violent insurrection or a foreign military invasion, leaders of the armed forces will probably continue to back Maduro, at least in the coming weeks.
     
  • As the regime's main source of income dries up as a result of US oil sanctions in the next few months, the likelihood of the military withdrawing its support for Maduro will rise.
     

This assessment was sent to clients of Risk Advisory's Security Intelligence & Analysis Service (SIAS) on 30 January 2019.

Image: Venezuela’s military leaders pledge support for Maduro, 24 January 2019; LUIS ROBAYO/AFP/Getty Images

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